NHL Off-Season Preview (Part 1 of 2)
Call me biased because of my love of the sport, but the NHL may have the most interesting off-season of any professional league. It is a frenzied summertime filled with hearsay, misinformation and a few jaw-dropping moves that leave you scratching your head.
Would you like an early example? Jaroslav Halak, who led his team to the Eastern Conference Finals over the President Trophy winning Washington Capitals and Alexander Ovechkin and the defending Stanley Cup Champions with Sidney Crosby – traded. That’s right, traded, for two prospects. What’s more, he was traded to the Blues, who may have had the best goaltender in the Central Division. So now Chris Mason is out of St. Louis and looking for work, and Halak will watch Carey Price tend net (again, only the Montreal brass know why) for the Habs.
With all that said, here is a preview of what may happen before the ice freezes again in 2010. The preview will break down the draft in part one, and free agency in part two. You may find that this preview leaves you with more questions than answers – just like the NHL off-season usually leaves me.
NHL Entry Draft – June 25
The biggest question surrounding the NHL entry draft is who will go number one, Taylor (Hall) or Tyler (Seguin). As a die-hard Oilers fan, who is willing to drive 5 hours in a blizzard to watch them lose in Minnesota for the 41st time in a row, I will attempt to remove my bias.
There is no question that these two players are the best in the draft. The questions are: Who is better? And who will be a better pick for the Oilers? The answer: both. Ok, ridiculous answer, but really, these two players are great in their own right.
Taylor Hall is an incredibly gifted offensive player who will work in the same vein as John Tavaraes and Steven Stamkos. Many experts say Hall is the more “NHL ready” player heading into the draft. He was part of a silver medal-winning Team Canada and was the Memorial Cup MVP in juniors this season. In fact, his Windsor Spitfires ran Seguin’s Plymouth team right out of the playoffs. Seguin couldn’t find the back of the net, and Hall was the leading scorer in the series.
However, the blast from the Spitfires fueled the argument that Seguin had no help in Plymouth and that he must be a talented player to tie Hall for top scoring honours (notice the ‘u’ like the Canadians would do?) in the OHL. Also, Seguin tops the NHL Central Scouting Service list. According to the CSS, Seguin is an offensively talented player who can play a solid two-way game…exactly what the Oilers need in a top line centre (I’m really rolling with the “proper” English).
To answer the first question, neither player is really better than the other at this point, only time will tell. The second question is what the Oilers really need to address. Oilers fans have been clamoring for a top line centre for years. Seguin fits the mold, but Hall has some flex to his game, and could move to centre, if necessary. The Oilers also have some depth (or at least players) up the middle. Sam Gagner and Shawn Horcoff fit the mold, but do not produce. They may be aided by the addition of top picks Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson and Jordan Eberle.
The dramatics will probably fall off once the Oilers make their selection. The Boston Bruins, who will laugh their way into next season with a pick that should have gone to Toronto, will gladly accept whoever the Oilers don’t select. Many rumors were swirling that the Bruins might try to move up and take the Oilers first pick, or try to move out of the second pick. Boston had the 15th pick to play with, if indeed they wanted to move up, but traded that pick to Florida as part of a package for Nathan Horton (well worth it in my book).
After Taylor and Tyler are gone (notice my ordering), the third pick belongs to the Florida Panthers. Many experts see a string of defensemen going in the third through tenth picks, including American Cam Folwer, who played with Hall in Windsor. Depending on who selects Fowler and fellow OHL defenseman Erik Gudbranson, who is being compared to Dion Phaneuf and Chris Pronger, don’t expect to see them in the NHL right away.
By saying that Fowler and Gudbranson won’t be in the NHL right away, I mean no disrespect. Most NHL defensemen take more time to develop. The lone exception over the past few years would be Drew Doughty who was selected 2nd overall by the L.A. Kings in 2008. The player taken behind him by the Atlanta Thrashers was Zach Bogosian. Bogosian has by no means, had a bad first two years, but is nowhere near his potential.
Speaking of those who try to keep the puck out of the net, you might expect to see a goaltender go in the top ten. After all, look at how important Halak and Anti Niemi were to their teams. However, NHL GMs always seem to be gun shy about taking a goalie in the first round, with good reason. A player like Steve Mason (who may have been one of the best rookie NHL goaltenders in modern history) only comes along so often – plus, Mason was drafted two years before he played in the NHL, in the third round. Jack Campbell, who was in goal for the Americans, when they won gold in the IIHF World Juniors, will probably be the first goalie taken, and may not see NHL action for three to four years.
The final question to ponder in this Friday’s draft will be the “Russian effect.” Since Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin, a good Russian has been hard to find. In the past three seasons only Alex Cherepanov (17th overall in 2007), Nikita Filatov (6th by Columbus in ’08) and Viktor Tikhonov (28th by Phoenix in ’08) have been taken in the first round. Cherapanov died tragically in a KHL league game and Filatov and Tikhonov have been incredible disappointments. This may be bad news for Russian forwards Vladimir Tarasenko and Evgeny Kuznetsov, who may plummet because of the stigma of Russian players defecting to the KHL and a lack of work ethic. Then again, it may be good news for a team in the mid-to-late first round, or early second round, that may pick up a steal.
If that wasn’t complicated enough for you, up next is the free agency period, which begins on July 1. Unrestricted Free Agents, Restricted Free Agents, and trades will highlight the early part of July. My preview of that is to come soon.
Until then, with my bias back in place, Edmonton – PLEASE take Hall!
-MP
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